Hopefully I don't put most of you to sleep with this write up as it should be fairly lengthy. I also want to add a reminder that I am a biased Arizona fan, so this writeup may be biased in certain parts, but when I cap a game, I try to leave out my biased opinion in favor of facts . . lets start first with what I know/have found out with ONLY Arizona:
The Cats left earlier today (Thursday) in order to get up to Madison and settle in so they can get up early on Friday and get used to playing for what will by 9am their time. I assume Coach Machovic had a few early practices during the week, but certainly cannot confirm this and it may not have coincided with class schedules. I still assume that something was done to get the players used to playing at their best so early in the day. I have heard that RB Clarence Farmer MIGHT NOT (this is certainly not a confirmation) play because of a sprained ankle during practice this week. If Farmer does not play, then Bell will take his place. . . few have heard of Bell, but he is very fast and should do a decent job rushing for the Cats although I would obviously prefer Farmer and his added size against a Big 10 defense. Finally, the Cats are pumped for this game. . . all of the crap that has been reported about Arizona being handed the victory against Utah has provided them extra fire and motivation to do well on ESPN against Wisconsin and show they are a good football team that won the game against Utah.
If anybody is a Badger fan and has some info about Wisconsin and how their practice/preparation went this week, please add it to this thread as it could only help everyone cap this game better.
Anyways, lets get to the analysis:
I'm not fully convinced that either team has played an opponent to the level that each will face on Saturday. . . I do believe Utah is a very good team, but not sure it is the same as facing Wisconsin on the road (maybe we'll know more after Utah plays Michigan, but too late to change our mind about this game). However, what I have noticed from Jason Johnson from U of A is that he is very effective WHEN HE HAS TIME IN THE POCKET. He threw one interception against Utah at the beginning of the 3rd quarter but everything else that I saw from him was quite impressive. Credit has to also go to the experience offensive line which will have every starter available for the game this Saturday (I believe one or two may have been absent against Utah). If Fresno State and Northern Illinois had success going to the air against Wisconsin, then I cannot see how Arizona will be stopped. A great addition/star to the passing attack is Thurman who gives Johnson two very good receivers to choose from on any given pass play (Bobby Wade being the other). In my opinion, Farmer would be a difficult loss, but should not hinder their ability to run the football because Wisconsin should focus most of their attention on the pass. As long as Arizona is able to keep the Wisky D in check by mixing up their pass plays with a few rushing attacks, I cannot see the Cats having problems scoring often against this unexperienced and young Wisky defensive team. It is important to note that Wisconsin was able to win their first four games because of their offense and timely turnovers. . . their defense is extremely weak.
Bollinger leads the Wisconsin offense which is their team's strength. Even with the loss of Evans, the Badgers have not had a problem running the football as Davis has filled in nicely. My greatest concern from a Wildcat standpoint is how Arizona will contain Wisconsin's passing attack. I'm not very concerned about the run as they have a history of doing quite will with their rush defense, but their pass defense has not been very strong execpt with the 1997 team that featured an All American DB. I was impressed with Arizona's play against Utah's passing attack as DBs seemed to be all over the field contesting passes and knocking potential catches away. . . they actually went for the ball instead of simply containing the receivers which was the norm the past few years! Williams and Orr for Wisconsin should be difficult to contain for the Cats. . . I feel the real advantage the Cats will have on defense is their defensive line getting to Bollinger early and often in order to force him to make quick and difficult decisions. Bollinger is a great scrambler as well, but again, Arizona should have the advantage most of the time with any kind of rushing play. Still, Wisconsin should put up a few touchdowns, but I feel Arizona's defense will stop them enough for Arizona to outscore them. Should be a high scoring game with the winner probably hitting the upper 30's to 40's. This is one reason why I believe taking the points is not as valuable in this game as taking the ML for Arizona. . . if you want Wisconsin, then don't be afraid to lay the points as the winner will likely win by a TD or more.
Couple interesting stats:
Arizona is 7-1 ATS as away dogs. . . this is since the humiliating defeat against Penn State in the 1998 opener that many still have not forgotten
Wisconsin is 0-5 ATS off three straight up wins. . . not sure if this really means that much. . . I think the Arizona stat is much more meaningful.
The Sporting New's Analysis:
"Maybe Game 5 will give us a clue as to how good Wisconsin is. So far, we're pretty sure the Badgers are either good enough to win the Big Ten or not good enough to win the Mid-American Conference.
Are the Badgers to be commended for doing whatever it takes to win? Or should we be concerned about those 10 sacks, 68 yards rushing and 3-point escape of Northern Illinois last Saturday? Or the 2-point win over a Fresno State team minus David Carr in Week 1?
Not only does Arizona offer Wisconsin its toughest test to date, the Badgers are in trouble in this first meeting between the teams. "
Advantages according to The Sporting News:
Arizona: QB, D line, O line, linebackers, and secondary.
Wisconsin: running backs, special teams, and coaching
I believe The Sporting News usually does a good job breaking down games by listing where the advantages are. . . as you can see, they feel Arizona has several key advantages. The only Arizona advantage that I would disagree on somewhat is at QB because I feel Johnson still hasn't proven himself where Bollinger is more experienced and maybe the better QB. . . but pass protection should once again be the key and I feel Arizona has a huge advantage in this area.
In the end, I feel Arizona has at least a 50% chance of winning this game. . . with a money line at +170 to +200 on several books, I believe this is the greatest value instead of taking the 4.5 to 5.5 points. I am going to wait and see how the line moves tomorrow before placing a wager, but I expect to see nothing less than +170 on the ML when I play this side.
An interesting side note on public perception and how Vegas uses it to set their lines:
If Wisconsin had a split record right now with 2 wins and 2 losses instead of 4 wins (which could have easily happened as they were lucky to defeat Fresno State and very lucky against Northern Illinois), then there is no chance that Vegas would have set a line like they did for this game with Wisky being favored by 7. This line was set with the belief that Wisconsin's perfect record through 4 games would look strong in the eyes of many bettors where as several of us know the truth as to how good this team really looked their first 4 games.
Final note:
On wagerline, well over 50% of the publis is on Wisconsin, yet the line as gone down to 4.5 on many books. . . 5 on most of them. Think this is a good sign for those who side with Arizona this Saturday morning!
