It's time for a Middle East update on the Third World War, currently in progress. "What... what?" even slightly more sober people might ask. "Did you just say, 'currently in progress?'"
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Yes, I did. So before I tell you the latest news, let me show you the big picture.
There are three upstart powers — Communist China, Nationalist Russia, and Radical Islam* — who mean to reshape the global order to suit their interests and aren't shy about using any means at their disposal (including violence) to achieve that end.
*Radical Islam is a transnational movement but is represented in nation-state form by Iran. I might use the two interchangeably.
The members of this new Axis also make fantastic allies of convenience, if not ideology. A bit like Nazi Germany and Soviet Russia allying for the brief and brutal business of carving up Poland, China, Russia, and Iran will sort out their differences (also possibly including violence) after they've toppled the American-led unipolar order.
The wars in Ukraine and the Middle East and the growing risk of war in the Pacific should not be viewed as existing in silos. Each one is part of the Axis effort to undo what the old order — the West plus the Pacific Rim — has built up.
China wants the western Pacific (that's everything on the other side of Hawaii) as Beijing's vassals. Russia wants its empire back, and traditionally, Russia believes its control should extend at least through Poland, preferably to the Rhine, and ideally to the Bay of Biscay. Radical Islam wants a global caliphate, but it'll settle (for now) for purging the House of Peace of anything vaguely unIslamic by the most spectacularly violent means available.
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Axis nations' actions might not be explicitly orchestrated, but like a solid jazz band, they know how to improvise harmoniously.
(Some readers will argue that the postwar/post-Cold War order isn't worth protecting, but I'm not here today to make that case. I'm just here to tell you what's going on as best as I'm able to see it and to relate it.)
So far, we sit in a privileged position. All we have to do is keep our friends armed and knock down the occasional rocket, missile, or drone. I suspect that if we continue to do such a half-assed job of keeping our friends armed, our privilege will slip.
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What has everyone on the edges of their seats this week is Iran's promised retaliation against Israel for the assassination of Hamas terrorist leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran last week. Iran is likely still hurting after its last effort at attacking Israel directly utterly failed and is still considering more effective — less ineffective? — options.
Whatever direction the next attack comes from, the U.S. Navy is in position to knock down more missiles and drones.
U.S. Navy ships are being strategically placed across the mid east as Israel braces for retaliation from Iran — pic.twitter.com/R98rhZC9HI
— Aishah Hasnie (@aishahhasnie) August 5, 2024
(There are two US Navy ships with the name Roosevelt. DDG-80 is the USS Roosevelt, a guided-missile destroyer named after FDR. CVN-71 is the USS Theodore Roosevelt, an aircraft carrier named after Teddy.)
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We also have a new ally: Saudi Arabia.
Open Source Intelligence Monitor reported this week that Riyadh warned Iran that "it will not allow Iran to use Saudi Airspace to launch an Attack on Israel, and that any Missiles, Drones, or Aircraft that enter its Airspace will be seen as a Violation of Saudi Sovereignty." Maybe that doesn't sound like such a big deal, particularly since the Kingdom was quick to note, "We are Defending ourselves, not Israel."
But Saudi airspace isn't needed for an Iranian attack on Israel. The Saudis are indicating growing Arab solidarity in the face of growing Persian imperialism across the Arab Middle East.
Personally, I miss the days when President Donald Trump's sanctions kept Iran effectively trapped in a box. But, having been set loose by President Emeritus Joe Biden, the best we can hope for — at least for the time being — is an Arab alliance in unofficial conjunction with the Israelis — boxing Iran back up again.
It will be needlessly bloody, of course, but that's the way world wars go.
